Iran’s war and the Zionist entity “shake” oil markets

Oil markets at the mercy of armed conflicts
– The global economy may slow again and will not recover.
-“The Strait of Hormuz” and “Bab al -Mandab”, two pressure in the face of the conflict
Expectations of the high prices of grains, their derivatives and some industrial products

Iman Dahmani

With the escalation of tensions due to confrontations between Iran and the Israeli occupation, oil prices continue to rise “worrying” amid expectations of their rise to record levels, parallel to the increasing volume of concerns about the fate of this war, especially its direct and indirect repercussions in its economic part, in light of the global oil market at the mercy of armed confrontations, which warns of a dark future that may be cloudy of the region that remains hostage to accounts Complex geopolitical.
Experts offered to “Al -Hiwar” a set of possible scenarios that in its entirety agree that this war may result in “serious” economic repercussions, which would “shake” the global economy, especially if the “Strait of Hormuz” and “Bab al -Mandab” in the “game” of rearranging the geopolitical scene and changing the balance of powers in the region are thrown, as two vital articles of energy supply, energy supply, Any disruption for them may greatly confuse the global economic performance, and push the oil and gas markets towards more shocks and fluctuations.

“Dangerous” repercussions .. “standard” and “nonsense” prices on oil!
This war may produce “serious” or “very dangerous” economic repercussions at the global level, so that it will not only reach the prices of oil to “record” levels, but will affect the prices of most of the consumables transmitted across the sea, according to the expectations made by the energy expert Ahmed Tarrat, in a statement to “dialogue”.
Tartar believes, “There are already very dangerous and dangerous economic repercussions on the whole world, as a result of the Iran -Israeli war in terms of the continuous rise in oil prices, thus leading to record prices that may range between 100 and 120 dollars per barrel, and this is due to the great fear of these consumers, whether they are final consumers or they are industrialists or others regarding the lack of supplies and therefore there is a great voracity to possess a greater possession A possible amount of these fossil products. ”

Disable supplies and productive “machines”
“The supply process itself will be disrupted, especially if Iran strikes the Strait of Hormuz, parallel to the presence of skirmishes in the Bab al -Mandab and the Red Sea as a result of the Yemeni bursts towards the Israeli occupation, and towards America, and then there are in fact major problems that result from this war and may lead to a significant disruption of supplies as well as the possibility of other effects attached By disrupting supplies, among them the high insurance rates in an amazing way and the disruption of some productive machines in different sites, especially in Europe, China and the United States, and this will lead to the slowdown in the global economy again and will not recover despite the beginning of its recovery from the Korona and Ukrainian-Russian war, and now the clay will make welfare through these major economic impacts.

High prices of grains and consumer materials
The expert pointed out that these effects may have the dimensions and geopolitical repercussions on the entire region, and this “reflects on the economic performance of all these countries and the global economy in general, because the disruption of supplies is not only the basis but will be accompanied by the impact of global trade in general, and this in fact may lead to other repercussions such as the high prices of pills and their derivatives as they are also linked to the supply process, as well as some other industrial and agricultural products.

Direct effects on the economy, especially the third world countries
The economies of the world, especially the countries of the third world, may face direct or indirect repercussions as a result of this war, which was confirmed by Tartar by saying, “This is in fact the reason for many experts fear of these repercussions, especially if they continue for more than months and not only for a few weeks, because this will reflect negatively on the economic performance of the whole world, and perhaps it will have direct impacts on all economies, especially the economies of the third world, which are mainly affected by the process of supply from the states of states Advanced, whether in the form of gifts, in the form of an inter -trade, or the like. ”

An important pressure paper on Tehran playing
For his part, economic analyst Dr. Jamal Al -Din Nofal Sherif believes in a statement to “Al -Hiwar”, that the repercussions of this war are mainly related to the possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz, which is among the most important strategic marine corridors due to the energy it provides, as 25 percent of liquefied gas is from the total global demand and 20 percent of the oil through which it passes, where it markets the products of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar, and this makes it a passage Strategic and thus constitute an important pressure card in Iran.
He explained, “Any decision that includes the closure or even the threat of its closure will affect the global costs, regarding the cost of shipping, especially the insurance costs, as a result of the high volume of risks that threaten this corridor, but as for the total closure of it, it is a decision that can be the last paper that Iran plays, because this strait is subject to the agreement of the Law of the Seas issued in 1982, but Tehran today is considered part of its territorial waters.”

Oil prices may reach $ 200 per barrel
Once this war is launched, the same expert expected that there will be a significant increase in the prices of raw materials and energy materials, which affects the productive capabilities of both Europe and China, as these two sides are considered one of the largest consumers for the transient product of this strait, and this affects greatly on prices and oil prices can reach $ 200 a barrel, and also affects the price of gas.

“Bab al -Mandab” is another paper in the “game” change the balance of power
Another scenario presented a scenario that may in turn affect the economies of the region in addition to the possibility of the actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, saying, “There is another scenario linked to the Strait of Bab al -Mandab, which the Houthis will use as another pressure card, as it will significantly affect the global economy and can be considered as another global economic crisis that the world may witness, while America may be safe from these repercussions, where it has been. Planning to face any of these possible scenarios, and this is through its great reserves for these raw materials. ”

Nigeria-Niger-Algeria tube project is a safe option
Regarding the steps that can be taken to confront these repercussions and limit their direct and indirect repercussions, the same spokesman pointed out that European countries should pay attention to the “Nigeria-Niger-Algeria” gas pipeline project and work to accelerate his embodiment and accelerate the pace of its achievement because it is considered as a safe and free pipeline from the potential risks where it will be in a very safe security and geopolitical situation, noting that All of these effects will negatively affect other economies in the Middle East, China and Europe. ”

“Yellow Gold” to compensate “Black Gold”
“In the event that a compromise of this war is reached, the possibility of these scenarios can be very small, but the prices of these materials remain a significant and tangible increase ranging between 10 and 15 percent and can reach 20 percent, and insurance companies and transport companies may also take advantage of the opportunity to raise costs and thus affect the general index of prices and individual income for the world and this can affect global inflation, and global inflation, Therefore, there is a possibility that we will witness a great trend towards investing in gold.

Deep geopolitical and economic repercussions
In turn, the economist, Dr. Houari Tigres, stressed in a statement to “Al -Hiwar” that the escalation of tensions in the Gulf region against the backdrop of direct and indirect military faculty between the Zionist entity and Iran is a foresight of deep geopolitical and economic repercussions, especially on the global oil market and biomedical navigation corridors, especially the Strait of Hormuz.
Tigrsi pointed out that the global oil market is under pressure, and in the event of an open war between Israel and Iran, global markets will likely witness an immediate leap in oil prices, which may exceed 10-15 percent in the early days, depending on the nature of the attack and international reactions, and this is due to fears of the failure of the supplies coming from the Gulf, where about 20 percent of the global oil supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Fears of disrupting about 18 million barrels of oil per day
Regarding Iran’s threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, the same spokesman says that “Iran has repeatedly threatened that it will close the Strait of Hormuz if it is exposed to a wide attack, a measure that can paralyze oil shipments from Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait, these countries are almost completely dependent on the strait to export crude oil, and therefore any actual closure, albeit temporarily, can lead to the disruption of between 17 and 18 million barrels per day, in addition to registering Puffations in supply chains, as well as a shortage of global supply and high prices above $ 100 a barrel easily.
Tigrsi believes that the importing countries are the ones who will suffer more from the repercussions of this war, the Asian countries, such as India, China, Japan and South Korea, due to their great dependence on Gulf oil, while European economies will also face pressure on energy prices and transportation costs.

Raising shipping and insurance prices and risks on commercial ships
The same expert expected the repercussions of deep geopolitical and economic repercussions on the movement of maritime navigation in the Gulf, especially at the level of the Strait of Hormuz as it is a strategic passage that does not only pass oil, but also huge quantities of liquefied natural gas and commercial goods, and stressed that “any disturbance in navigation through this strait may lead to raising shipping and maritime insurance prices, increasing risks to commercial ships and oil tankers, especially if they are used Marine mines, or ships were targeted by the Revolutionary Guards or pro -Iranian militias, in addition to confusing the global trade movement, where the strait is considered a nerve of maritime trade.
As for the possible international reactions, Tigrce expects that “the United States and its allies deploy additional naval forces to ensure” freedom of navigation, as well as rapid movements by OPEC to try to calm the markets, and pump more oil from strategic stocks. “

These are the most dangerous future scenarios
Tigrisi considered that the “most dangerous” future scenarios will be bypassing the stage of threat and reaching a “actual closing process for the Strait of Hormuz with wide clashes in the Gulf, which may lead to a global energy crisis and a collapse in the financial markets”, while the second scenario is based on “a limited escalation with mutual threats without real closure of the strait, but it leads to a cautious increase in prices and continuous fears in the markets.” The “less likely” but “optimal” scenario, according to the same expert, is “a quick diplomatic intervention that prevents escalation and maintains energy flow, with temporary fluctuations in the market.”

Oil markets at the mercy of armed conflicts
“The war between the Zionist entity and Iran, especially if it extends to the waters of the Gulf, is not just a military confrontation but rather a real threat to global energy security and international navigation, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz or even its threat to create a global economic earthquake that would rearrange the geopolitical priorities and put oil markets at the mercy of armed conflicts.”
On the other hand, the energy expert and the advisor in the specific energies and the energy transition, Tawfiq Hosni, believes, in a statement to “Al -Hiwar”, that the repercussions of the war between Iran and the Israeli occupation must be considered as temporary results, and although this crisis has completely affected the oil consumption in parallel with a surplus regarding oil production, but he expected that prices at these standard levels do not remain long.

Not just a war between Iran and the entity …!
He explained, “Things are complicated in light of the ongoing war may increase the global economic crisis, but our scope of our view does not remain narrow, and we see it as just a war between Iran and the Israeli entity, because it is in fact a war between the Brexes and the Group His ability to reform matters during the four years of his covenant, which in turn suffers from the pressure of the so -called back power that supports the idea of ​​war and reaching the crisis to worrying levels, so that its repercussions reach a large number of countries as well as causing something similar to the earthquake that strikes the global economy from which America can get out of less damage, depending on arms exports.
On the possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz, Hosni said, “We must realize that the issue is not easy because Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz constitutes a direct threat to the marketing of about 45 percent of global oil, which affects the Gulf petroleum countries who are in fact a allies of America, as they prepared it with great funding.” And he added, “Prices cannot remain at these standards because this is not in interest America”.