Politico: Targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities did not weaken its capabilities … but rather strengthened its nuclear choice

The US Vice President, JD Vans, stated on Sunday morning that the strikes launched by Washington on Saturday evening “have brought the Iranian nuclear program to be a lot of steps,” as he put it. For his part, President Donald Trump announced that the operation was “completely destroyed” major facilities inside Iran, citing satellite pictures that showed destructive buildings and mountain slopes that were subjected to accurate shelling.

However, “Politico”, in a report, indicates that these statements “may be excessive in confidence and optimism”, as the newspaper quotes informed sources and intelligence analysts that “Iran still has the main ingredients to quickly rebuild its nuclear program, including highly enriched uranium, components of centrifuges, as well as specialized human experiences.”

The newspaper added in its report: “The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Kane, explained that the three sites targeted by the strikes, including the Fordo underground facility, were severely damaged, but at the same time indicated that the final evaluation of the size of the destruction will take some time.”

Questions are raised about the actual amount of enriched uranium that was destroyed during the strikes. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran had stored about 900 lbs of enriched uranium by 60% by May 17, which is enough to manufacture several nuclear bombs after further enrichment. The Agency’s general manager, Rafael Grossi, has publicly indicated that Iran may transfer part of these materials or all of the international control facilities before the outbreak of the strikes, which means that it may be still in its possession, which is what Vans also alluded to.

The sources told “Politico” that “Iran is able to hide this type of material easily, given the small size of the containers that are stored in them, which resemble diving cylinders. The components of the centrifugal devices are small and easy to transport, and it has emerged from the International Control Department since the collapse of the nuclear agreement in 2018 after Washington withdrew from it.”

According to follow -up sources, most Iranian nuclear experts and scientists have been postponed from the targeted facilities before the strikes, which means that basic human cadres are still available. And with the presence of 60%enriched uranium, and the number of only 100 and 200 centrifugals, Iran, theoretically, can produce an adequate amount of enriched uranium to make a bomb within weeks.

According to the same sources, Iran does not need a huge facility such as “Fordo” or “Natanz” to manufacture a nuclear weapon, but it can build a small facility under the cover of a civil industrial building, or in a mountainous location that is difficult to target. Although Tehran may postpone the creation of a new facility today, its ability to run one within a year seems great.

“Politico” quoted its well -informed sources that “the recent strikes may lead to counterproductive results, as targeting the sensitive Fordo facility may be a turning point and pushes the Iranian leadership to take the political decision to establish a nuclear bomb, after years of contentment with technical ability to do so without directly seeking to possess weapons.”

In the event of a decision -making, Iran will have a “uranium Silence” – that is, converting it into a launchable nuclear head. Estimates differ from the time required for that; Some American assessments indicate the possibility of completing this stage within about a year, especially as working to enrich uranium and the design of the bomb may be parallel.

The report concludes that the worst scenario is that Iran has already possessed a secret enrichment facility, as well as an almost complete nuclear design, which may enable it to own a bomb within months.

As for the best scenario, which is the least likely according to “Politico”, it is the success of the strikes in destroying the entire stock of Tehran of highly enriched uranium and technical components, but even in this case, Iran has the ability and experience necessary to rebuild its program within a few years.